Survivorship Bias Is A Lie!

There’s a myth that refuses to die in the world of audio and video: If something has survived for decades, it must be superior to modern alternatives. This is survivorship bias at work. The idea is simple: we assume that because an old amplifier, speaker, or CRT TV is still around and functioning, it must be better than today’s offerings.

But here’s the truth. Survivorship bias is a lie! Just because something has lasted doesn’t mean it’s better—it just means it’s still here.

The “They Don’t Make Them Like They Used To” Fallacy

We’ve all heard it before: “This vintage receiver from the ‘70s blows away anything made today!”, or “CRT TVs have better motion handling than modern OLEDs.” These arguments stem from survivorship bias, but they fall apart under scrutiny.

One of the most common things that I hear is that “35w of 1970’s power is waaaaay different than 100w of today’s power.” I’m sorry, did we have different technology in the ’70s than we do today? Did a watt somehow measure differently? The simple fact is that most folks didn’t need 35w in 1970 and we still rarely need more than that today.

I would argue that because we have refined speaker design with CAD, and made them more efficient, the typical person needs less than 35w today. I know that my 92dB efficient speakers that I sit 6-8′ away don’t need more than a few watts, let alone the 100w my Onkyo TX-NR7100 outputs.

The Myth of Vintage Superiority

Yes, some classic audio gear sounds great. High-end receivers from the ‘70s and ‘80s were built like tanks. Some have survived 40+ years! But does that mean they’re better than modern gear? Not necessarily.

The meaning of vintage can vary greatly. When I think vintage, I picture gear from the ’80s and ’90s with that black “stack” look. Others will think of stuff from the ’70s that is made from metal and wood, and refers to my “vintage” gear as the “plastic black crap era!” Who is right? Are we both wrong? Is “vintage” the old console stereos of the ’60s and ’70s with tape decks, record players, and 8-tracks? Do you see what I mean, though?

Technology Has Advanced

Audio processing, amplifier efficiency, and speaker design have come a long way. A well-designed modern Class-D amplifier can outperform a vintage Class-A/B in power efficiency and distortion. Digital signal processing (DSP) enables tuning and room correction that vintage systems could only dream of.

Survival Bias Doesn’t Show the Failures

Sure, that 1970s Marantz receiver still works, but what about the thousands (or tens of thousands) that didn’t? The ones with burnt-out transistors, corroded contacts, or fried capacitors? We don’t see them, because they’re dead and forgotten (and buried in a landfill somewhere).

I have owned several AV receivers over the years. Of those, my Denon X3600H died after 2 years and needed repairs. Does that mean that all Denon AV gear is going to die? Well, my working 15-year-old Denon that I gave my father would like to have a word with you. This is why survivorship bias is a lie!

Measurements Don’t Lie

This one hurts a bit because it’s true. Audio enthusiasts love nostalgia, but modern equipment objectively measures better in distortion, frequency response, and noise levels. Vintage gear often has a colored sound, which some people enjoy, but that doesn’t make it objectively superior.

Have you heard someone talk about how warm their old Pioneer receiver from the ’70s was? Yep, that is a sure sign that it was inaccurate. I love when people talk about how superior tube amps are to their modern counterparts and by changing the tubes you can get a different sound. I have bad news for you… inaccurate!

CRT Nostalgia – Are Old TVs Really Better?

A common argument is that CRT (cathode-ray tube) TVs have better motion than modern OLEDs or LCDs. While it’s true that CRTs had zero input lag and no motion blur, that doesn’t mean they’re better overall.

Resolution Matters

A top-tier CRT might have looked great in its time, but it was limited to 480p or 1080i. A modern 4K OLED blows it out of the water in sharpness, contrast, and color accuracy.

I went through a stage during COVID-19 where I collected every vintage piece of tech from VHS to laserdisc and re-watched all my favorite stuff. I made it through 1/2 of a VHS movie and only a few laserdisc movies before I realized how crappy the sound and resolution were compared to modern stuff. Luckily I found someone who also loved “vintage” gear and recouped much of my investment.

Give me my 4K TV vs CRT any day of the week.

CRT Defects Were Everywhere

Geometry issues, convergence problems, flicker, and screen burn-in were all common CRT flaws that people forget. Surviving CRTs tend to be the best ones, giving the illusion that all of them were great.

Guess what, we are doing the same with Plasma TVs now. Some real standout models from Samsung and Panasonic are still around today. Heck, my dad still has a 50″ Panasonic plasma from circa 2005 that he uses to watch TV and heat his room simultaneously.

What about my beloved OLED? Some of the older models also suffered burn-in, or died. Do you know why the price of OLEDs was so much in the beginning? The QC on the large panels was poor, and LG had to reject a ton, making the rest more expensive.

Size and Convenience

Sure, a 100-pound Sony Trinitron from the early 2000s might have deep blacks, but who wants to deal with that when a modern OLED is thinner, lighter, and objectively better in almost every metric?

I lived in apartments during university, and the one object that we hated moving more than anything was our CRT. That thing was heavy, and not massive in screen size. Our 32″ was more stand than it was TV, and it weighed close to 100 weirdly shaped pounds! Need I say it again? Survivorship bias is a lie!

Why the Survivorship Bias Argument Is Overused

The mistake is assuming that because something old and still works, it must have been built better. In reality, many old products survived by chance, not necessarily because they were superior. Plus, some people maintain and repair old gear, artificially extending its lifespan. I had an amp re-capped. This extended its life significantly. Of course, without my intervention, it would have been dead and discarded like most of its brethren.

We forget the bad products that failed and disappeared. NES is the King of ’80/’90s gaming. Can you tell me what other products were in the space? I am sure vintage video game nerds can list them off, but because lots of NES’ are still around, the NES reigns supreme.

It’s fine to appreciate vintage audio and video gear, but let’s not pretend that just because it survived, it’s the best. The reality is, that modern technology has surpassed most of it in performance, convenience, and reliability.

Our Take

Survivorship bias is a lie, but nostalgia is real! Specs, science, and innovation don’t lie. Just because something is still working doesn’t make it objectively better. Does that mean you shouldn’t get that vintage ’70s Marantz receiver because you like the look?

Heck no, go ahead. Just understand that just because it’s old, it’s not magically better than the newest gear on the market. Many AV manufacturers recognize the role that nostalgia plays and make gear with fewer digital displays and more knobs and switches, specifically to appeal to that crowd. In fact, some charge more for silver-colored faceplates and add weights to give the buyer a sense of “quality”. So if you like the vintage look but want today’s features and performance, you can just pay a little more for that style of gear. Best of both worlds!